Market Opportunity Analysis

Generate a comprehensive market opportunity analysis for a startup, including Total Addressable Market (TAM), Serviceable Available Market (SAM), and Serviceable Obtainable Market (SOM) calculations using both bottom-up and top-down methodologies.

Use this skill when

• Working on market opportunity analysis tasks or workflows
• Needing guidance, best practices, or checklists for market opportunity analysis

Do not use this skill when

• The task is unrelated to market opportunity analysis
• You need a different domain or tool outside this scope

Instructions

• Clarify goals, constraints, and required inputs.
• Apply relevant best practices and validate outcomes.
• Provide actionable steps and verification.
• If detailed examples are required, open resources/implementation-playbook.md.

What This Command Does

This command guides through an interactive market sizing process to: 1. Define the target market and customer segments 2. Gather relevant market data 3. Calculate TAM using bottom-up methodology 4. Validate with top-down analysis 5. Narrow to SAM with appropriate filters 6. Estimate realistic SOM (3-5 year opportunity) 7. Present findings in a formatted report

Instructions for Claude

When this command is invoked, follow these steps:

Step 1: Gather Context

Ask the user for essential information: - Product/Service Description: What problem is being solved? - Target Customers: Who is the ideal customer? (industry, size, geography) - Business Model: How does pricing work? (subscription, transaction, etc.) - Stage: What stage is the company? (pre-launch, seed, Series A) - Geography: Initial target market (US, North America, Global)

Step 2: Activate market-sizing-analysis Skill

The market-sizing-analysis skill provides comprehensive methodologies. Reference it for: - Bottom-up calculation frameworks - Top-down validation approaches - Industry-specific templates - Data source recommendations

Step 3: Conduct Bottom-Up Analysis

For B2B/SaaS: 1. Define customer segments (company size, industry, use case) 2. Estimate number of companies in each segment 3. Determine average contract value (ACV) per segment 4. Calculate TAM: Σ (Segment Size × ACV)

For Consumer/Marketplace: 1. Define target user demographics 2. Estimate total addressable users 3. Determine average revenue per user (ARPU) 4. Calculate TAM: Total Users × ARPU × Frequency

For Transactions/E-commerce: 1. Estimate total transaction volume (GMV) 2. Determine take rate or margin 3. Calculate TAM: Total GMV × Take Rate

Step 4: Gather Market Data

Use available tools to research: - WebSearch: Find industry reports, market size estimates, public company data - Cite all sources with URLs and publication dates - Document assumptions clearly

Recommended data sources (from skill): - Government data (Census, BLS) - Industry reports (Gartner, Forrester, Statista) - Public company filings (10-K reports) - Trade associations - Academic research

Step 5: Top-Down Validation

Validate bottom-up calculation: 1. Find total market category size from research 2. Apply geographic filters 3. Apply segment/product filters 4. Compare to bottom-up TAM (should be within 30%)

If variance > 30%, investigate and explain differences.

Step 6: Calculate SAM

Apply realistic filters to narrow TAM: - Geographic: Regions actually serviceable - Product Capability: Features needed to serve - Market Readiness: Customers ready to adopt - Addressable Switching: Can reach and convert

Formula:

SAM = TAM × Geographic % × Product Fit % × Market Readiness %
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Step 7: Estimate SOM

Calculate realistic obtainable market share:

Conservative Approach (Recommended): - Year 3: 2-3% of SAM - Year 5: 4-6% of SAM

Consider: - Competitive intensity - Available resources (funding, team) - Go-to-market effectiveness - Differentiation strength

Step 8: Create Market Sizing Report

Generate a comprehensive markdown report with:

Section 1: Executive Summary - Market opportunity in one paragraph - TAM/SAM/SOM headline numbers

Section 2: Market Definition - Problem being solved - Target customer profile - Geographic scope - Time horizon

Section 3: Bottom-Up Analysis - Customer segment breakdown - Segment sizing with sources - TAM calculation with formula - Assumptions documented

Section 4: Top-Down Validation - Industry category and size - Filter application - Validated TAM - Comparison to bottom-up

Section 5: SAM Calculation - Filters applied with rationale - SAM formula and result - Segment-level breakdown

Section 6: SOM Projection - Market share assumptions - Year 3 and Year 5 estimates - Customer count implications - Revenue projections

Section 7: Market Growth - Industry growth rate (CAGR) - Key growth drivers - 5-year market evolution

Section 8: Validation and Sanity Checks - Public company comparisons - Customer count validation - Competitive context

Section 9: Investment Thesis - Market opportunity assessment - Key positives and risks - Venture-scale potential - Next steps

Step 9: Save Report

Offer to save the report as a markdown file: - Suggest filename: market-opportunity-analysis-YYYY-MM-DD.md - Use Write tool to create file - Confirm file location with user

Tips for Best Results

Do: - Start with bottom-up (most credible) - Always triangulate with top-down - Cite all data sources - Document every assumption - Be conservative on SOM - Compare to public company benchmarks - Explain any data gaps or limitations

Don't: - Rely solely on top-down - Cherry-pick optimistic data - Claim >10% SOM without strong justification - Mix methodologies inappropriately - Ignore competitive context - Skip validation steps

Example Usage

User: /market-opportunity

Claude: I'll help you create a comprehensive market opportunity analysis. Let me start by gathering some context.

What product or service are you analyzing?
→ "AI-powered email marketing for e-commerce companies"

Who are your target customers?
→ "E-commerce companies with $1M+ annual revenue in North America"

What's your pricing model?
→ "Subscription: $50-500/month based on email volume, average $300/month"

[Claude proceeds with analysis, gathering data, calculating TAM/SAM/SOM, and generating report]
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Integration with Other Commands

This command pairs well with: - /financial-projections - Use SOM to build revenue model - /business-case - Include market sizing in business case

Notes

• Market sizing typically takes 30-60 minutes for thorough analysis
• Quality depends on data availability - explain limitations
• Update annually as market evolves
• Conservative estimates build credibility with investors

Limitations

• Use this skill only when the task clearly matches the scope described above.
• Do not treat the output as a substitute for environment-specific validation, testing, or expert review.
• Stop and ask for clarification if required inputs, permissions, safety boundaries, or success criteria are missing.