Financial Projections

Create a comprehensive 3-5 year financial model with revenue projections, cost structure, headcount planning, cash flow analysis, and three-scenario modeling (conservative, base, optimistic) for startup financial planning and fundraising.

Use this skill when

• Working on financial projections tasks or workflows
• Needing guidance, best practices, or checklists for financial projections

Do not use this skill when

• The task is unrelated to financial projections
• You need a different domain or tool outside this scope

Instructions

• Clarify goals, constraints, and required inputs.
• Apply relevant best practices and validate outcomes.
• Provide actionable steps and verification.
• If detailed examples are required, open resources/implementation-playbook.md.

What This Command Does

This command builds a complete financial model including: 1. Cohort-based revenue projections 2. Detailed cost structure (COGS, S&M, R&D, G&A) 3. Headcount planning by role 4. Monthly cash flow analysis 5. Key metrics (CAC, LTV, burn rate, runway) 6. Three-scenario analysis

Instructions for Claude

When this command is invoked, follow these steps:

Step 1: Gather Model Inputs

Ask the user for essential information:

Business Model: - Revenue model (SaaS, marketplace, transaction, etc.) - Pricing structure (tiers, average price) - Target customer segments

Starting Point: - Current MRR/ARR (if any) - Current customer count - Current team size - Current cash balance

Growth Assumptions: - Expected monthly customer acquisition - Customer retention/churn rate - Average contract value (ACV) - Sales cycle length

Cost Assumptions: - Gross margin or COGS % - S&M budget or CAC target - Current burn rate (if applicable)

Funding: - Planned fundraising (amount, timing) - Pre/post-money valuation

Step 2: Activate startup-financial-modeling Skill

The startup-financial-modeling skill provides frameworks. Reference it for: - Revenue modeling approaches - Cost structure templates - Headcount planning guidance - Scenario analysis methods

Step 3: Build Revenue Model

Use Cohort-Based Approach:

For each month, track: 1. New customers acquired 2. Existing customers retained (apply churn) 3. Revenue per cohort (customers × ARPU) 4. Expansion revenue (upsells)

Formula:

MRR (Month N) = Σ across all cohorts:
  (Cohort Size × Retention Rate × ARPU) + Expansion
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Project: - Monthly detail for Year 1-2 - Quarterly detail for Year 3 - Annual for Years 4-5

Step 4: Model Cost Structure

Break down operating expenses:

1. Cost of Goods Sold (COGS) - Hosting/infrastructure (% of revenue or fixed) - Payment processing (% of revenue) - Variable customer support - Third-party services

Target gross margin: - SaaS: 75-85% - Marketplace: 60-70% - E-commerce: 40-60%

2. Sales & Marketing (S&M) - Sales team compensation - Marketing programs - Tools and software - Target: 40-60% of revenue (early stage)

3. Research & Development (R&D) - Engineering team - Product management - Design - Target: 30-40% of revenue

4. General & Administrative (G&A) - Executive team - Finance, legal, HR - Office and facilities - Target: 15-25% of revenue

Step 5: Plan Headcount

Create role-by-role hiring plan:

Reference team-composition-analysis skill for: - Roles by stage - Compensation benchmarks - Hiring velocity assumptions

For each role: - Title and department - Start date (month/quarter) - Base salary - Fully-loaded cost (salary × 1.3-1.4) - Equity grant

Track departmental ratios: - Engineering: 40-50% of team - Sales & Marketing: 25-35% - G&A: 10-15% - Product/CS: 10-15%

Step 6: Calculate Cash Flow

Monthly cash flow projection:

Beginning Cash Balance
+ Cash Collected (revenue, consider payment terms)
- Operating Expenses
- CapEx
= Ending Cash Balance

Monthly Burn = Revenue - Expenses (if negative)
Runway = Cash Balance / Monthly Burn Rate
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Include Funding Events: - Timing of raises - Amount raised - Use of proceeds - Impact on cash balance

Step 7: Compute Key Metrics

Calculate monthly/quarterly:

Unit Economics: - CAC (S&M spend / new customers) - LTV (ARPU × margin% / churn rate) - LTV:CAC ratio (target > 3.0) - CAC payback period (target < 18 months)

Efficiency Metrics: - Burn multiple (net burn / net new ARR) - target < 2.0 - Magic number (net new ARR / S&M spend) - target > 0.5 - Rule of 40 (growth% + margin%) - target > 40%

Cash Metrics: - Monthly burn rate - Runway in months - Cash efficiency

Step 8: Create Three Scenarios

Build conservative, base, and optimistic projections:

Conservative (P10): - New customers: -30% vs. base - Churn: +20% vs. base - Pricing: -15% vs. base - CAC: +25% vs. base

Base (P50): - Most likely assumptions - Primary planning scenario

Optimistic (P90): - New customers: +30% vs. base - Churn: -20% vs. base - Pricing: +15% vs. base - CAC: -25% vs. base

Step 9: Generate Financial Model Report

Create comprehensive markdown report with tables:

Section 1: Executive Summary - 3-5 year financial snapshot - Key metrics at scale - Funding requirements

Section 2: Model Assumptions - Revenue model and pricing - Growth assumptions - Cost structure assumptions - Headcount plan summary

Section 3: Revenue Projections Monthly/quarterly tables showing:

| Month | New Customers | Total Customers | MRR | ARR | Growth % |
|-------|---------------|-----------------|-----|-----|----------|
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Section 4: Cost Breakdown

| Department | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | % Revenue |
|------------|--------|--------|--------|-----------|
| COGS       | $X     | $Y     | $Z     | XX%       |
| S&M        | $X     | $Y     | $Z     | XX%       |
| R&D        | $X     | $Y     | $Z     | XX%       |
| G&A        | $X     | $Y     | $Z     | XX%       |
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Section 5: Headcount Plan

| Department | Current | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 |
|------------|---------|--------|--------|--------|
| Engineering| X       | Y      | Z      | W      |
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Section 6: Cash Flow Analysis

| Quarter | Revenue | Expenses | Net Burn | Cash Balance | Runway |
|---------|---------|----------|----------|--------------|--------|
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Section 7: Key Metrics

| Metric | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Target |
|--------|--------|--------|--------|--------|
| CAC | $X | $Y | $Z | <$A |
| LTV | $X | $Y | $Z | >$B |
| Burn Multiple | X | Y | Z | <2.0 |
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Section 8: Scenario Analysis

| Scenario | Year 3 ARR | Customers | Burn | Runway |
|----------|------------|-----------|------|--------|
| Conservative | $Xم | Y | $Z | W mo |
| Base | $X | Y | $Z | W mo |
| Optimistic | $X | Y | $Z | W mo |
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Section 9: Funding Requirements - Amount needed - Use of proceeds breakdown - Milestones to achieve - Expected valuation impact

Section 10: Validation - Sanity checks performed - Benchmark comparisons - Risk factors - Assumptions to monitor

Step 10: Save Model

Offer to save as markdown file: - Suggest filename: financial-projections-YYYY-MM-DD.md - Include note that user can convert to Excel/Sheets - Provide formulas for key calculations

Financial Model Best Practices

Do: - Use cohort-based revenue model - Include 3 scenarios - Show monthly detail (Year 1-2) - Calculate key metrics - Validate against benchmarks - Document all assumptions - Show cash flow and runway - Include fundraising milestones

Don't: - Be overly optimistic on growth - Underestimate costs - Forget fully-loaded compensation - Ignore cash timing - Skip scenario analysis - Use static headcount - Forget to validate

Integration with Other Commands

Pairs well with: - /market-opportunity - Use SOM for revenue ceiling - /business-case - Include projections in business case

Example Usage

User: /financial-projections

Claude: I'll create a comprehensive financial model for your startup. Let me gather the key inputs.

What's your business model?
→ "B2B SaaS, subscription-based"

Current state?
→ "$50K MRR, 100 customers, 5-person team, $500K cash"

Growth assumptions?
→ "Expect 15% MoM growth, 10% monthly churn, $500 ACV"

[Claude builds complete model with all sections]
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Notes

• Model building takes 45-90 minutes
• Results in comprehensive planning tool
• Update monthly to track vs. actuals
• Share with investors and board
• Use for fundraising decks
• Basis for budget and hiring decisions

Limitations

• Use this skill only when the task clearly matches the scope described above.
• Do not treat the output as a substitute for environment-specific validation, testing, or expert review.
• Stop and ask for clarification if required inputs, permissions, safety boundaries, or success criteria are missing.